Acca Insurance EV Calculator

Accumulator (acca) insurance is a sportsbook promotion that refunds your stake if exactly one leg of your multi-leg bet loses. The refund usually comes as a free bet, bonus credit, or occasionally cash.

• Typically requires 4-6+ legs minimum
• Each leg must meet a minimum odds threshold
• Only triggers when exactly one selection loses
• Does NOT help if two or more legs lose

Insurance pays when exactly one leg loses, so its value is that probability times what the refund is really worth. The catch is that adding legs cuts that probability while the margin you are paying compounds, and the two move against each other fast.

• Fewer legs = higher chance exactly one loses. At 60% legs it peaks at two and falls from there
• Longer accas compound the margin: each leg multiplies your expected loss
• A refund covering 100% in cash beats one covering 100% as a free bet, by a lot
• Insurance rarely turns a long acca positive. It softens the loss

Not all refunds are created equal. A cash refund returns full value, while free bets (stake-not-returned) are worth roughly 70-80% of face value since you cannot withdraw the stake portion.

• Cash refund: 100% of stated value
• Free bet (SNR): ~70-80% after conversion
• Bonus credit: Value depends on rollover requirements
• Always factor in the true refund value, not the face value

The promotion sets a minimum leg count. Every leg past that minimum costs you margin and lowers the chance the insurance ever pays, so the structure that gets the most out of the offer is the smallest one that qualifies.

• Meet the minimum leg count exactly. Do not over-qualify
• Prefer cash refunds, then free bets, then bonus credit with rollover
• Bet the maximum allowed stake only when the insured EV is actually positive
• Compare insurance value across books before placing