Cash Out Calculator

Cash out when the offer exceeds the fair value of your remaining position. This happens when your estimated win probability has dropped since you placed the bet, or when the guaranteed return outweighs the risk-adjusted EV of letting it ride.

Also consider cashing out when the stake represents a large portion of your bankroll (>10%), when you need liquidity, or when the emotional weight of the bet is affecting your other decisions.

A fair cash-out equals your win probability multiplied by the potential payout. If your bet has a 40% chance of winning $500, the fair cash-out is $200. Sportsbooks typically offer 5-20% less than fair value.

Sportsbooks profit on cash-outs by offering less than fair value. The edge varies by sport, market, and timing. Live cash-outs during volatile moments carry the highest edge (10-25%), while pre-game cash-outs are fairer (3-10%).

Books also adjust offers based on liability. If many bettors hold the same side, the cash-out offer may be deliberately attractive to reduce the book's exposure. Compare the offered amount to the fair value this calculator provides.

Loss aversion makes bettors cash out too early on winning bets and too late on losing ones. The endowment effect makes your current position feel more valuable than it is. These cognitive biases consistently lead to suboptimal cash-out decisions.

The best approach is mechanical: if the cash-out offer is below fair value and your bankroll can absorb the loss, let it ride. Remove emotion from the equation and focus on the expected value calculation this tool provides.