Closing Line Value Calculator

Measure your betting edge against the sharpest number in the market. CLV is the gold standard metric that separates winning bettors from losing ones. Track it, optimize it, profit from it.

Presets

Inputs

Your Bet Odds American format (e.g. -110, +150)

Closing Line Odds Odds at game start

Stake optional, for profit projection

Projection Bets for long-run ROI estimate

Bankroll for Kelly bet sizing

Results

Closing Line Value

+2.114%

Sharp: consistently beating the closing line

Implied probabilities include the book's vig on both prices; the ratio cancels most of it, so CLV reads as a value edge, not a true-probability edge.

Implied Probability Comparison

Your Odds

52.38%

Closing

53.49%

CLV Percentage+2.114%

Edge Approx. (¢/$) ~approx+2.11¢

Projected ROI (1000 bets)+2.11%

Projected P/L (1000 bets)+$2114.16

With a CLV of +2.11%, betting +$100.00 per wager over 1000 bets, your expected edge yields +$2114.16 in long-run profit. CLV-based projection

Kelly Bet:+$23.26(2.33% of bankroll)

95% CI over 1000 bets:-$3796.91to+$8025.24

Line Shopping Tracker

Best: FanDuel at +3.01% CLV

Closing Line (true close)

Book	Opening Line	Current Line	CLV vs Close
			+2.11%
			+3.01% BEST
			+0.00%

Cold Streak Analysis

Your Stated Edge %

Wins in last N bets

Total bets (N)

Expected wins at 3% edge:10.3

Actual wins:8 (21.0% likely under stated edge)

Results are within expected variance for your stated edge

P(this streak | true edge) = 21.05%

ROI by Sport Breakdown

Add sport tags to batch entries to see per-sport CLV breakdown. Switch to Batch Mode and add a sport column to each bet.

CLV by Market Type

Add market tags (Spread, Total, ML, Prop) to batch entries to see per-market CLV breakdown.

Understanding Closing Line Value

What is CLV?

Closing Line Value measures whether you got better odds than the final line before the event starts. The closing line is considered the most efficient price in the market because it incorporates the maximum amount of information and sharp money. If you consistently beat the closing line, you have a genuine edge, regardless of your short-term results. Professional sportsbooks use CLV as the primary metric to identify sharp bettors, and it is widely regarded as the single best predictor of long-term profitability.

Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate

Win rate is dominated by short-term variance. You can win 60% of your bets in a week from pure luck, or lose 60% despite making excellent picks. CLV strips away the noise. A bettor averaging +2% CLV will be profitable over thousands of bets with near-mathematical certainty, even if individual weeks look terrible. Sportsbooks know this: they will limit a bettor with positive CLV long before that bettor shows a winning record. The closing line is the market's final verdict, beating it consistently is the strongest possible evidence of skill.

How to Beat the Closing Line

Three proven strategies: Bet early, lines at open are least efficient, and early sharp action moves them toward the close. Line shop aggressively, having accounts at 5+ books means you always grab the best available number, which often ends up beating the closing line at any single book. Use models, building a quantitative model that prices events independently of the market lets you identify value before the market corrects. The best bettors combine all three: model-driven early bets placed at the sharpest available price.

CLV and Kelly Criterion

Once you know your CLV, you can size bets optimally using the Kelly Criterion. If your average CLV is +3%, your implied edge is roughly 3 cents per dollar wagered. Kelly says bet a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge divided by the odds. In practice, most sharp bettors use fractional Kelly (quarter to half Kelly) to reduce variance while still growing their bankroll. CLV gives you the edge estimate; Kelly tells you how much to stake. Together they form the complete framework for professional bankroll management.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

CLV measures the difference between the odds you got at bet placement vs. the odds available just before the game starts (the closing line). A consistently positive CLV means you are betting into better odds than the sharp late money, which is the strongest indicator of long-term profitability.

Why is CLV the gold standard?

The closing line is set by the most informed money in the market: sharps, syndicates, and market makers. If you consistently beat the close, you are obtaining better prices than these sophisticated players, which is a statistically robust signal that you have real edge.

What is a good CLV?

Any positive CLV is good. A consistent +2 to 3% CLV is considered excellent for a recreational bettor. Professional bettors typically target +3 to 5% CLV. CLV below 0% means you are getting worse prices than closing, which suggests you are likely losing long-term.

How is CLV calculated?

CLV % = ((opening implied probability − closing implied probability) / opening implied probability) × 100. Positive CLV means you locked in a better price (lower implied probability) than the closing line.

First time here

The odds you bet at and the closing line just before the game started. Beating the close consistently is the clearest sign of an edge.

Odds in another format:Odds Converter →

Positive CLV over many bets should show up as ROI. Check that it does.

Open ROI Calculator →