Scratch Card EV Calculator
Determine if a scratch card game is +EV or -EV based on remaining prizes and tickets. Make mathematically informed decisions before you buy.
Presets:
Game Setup
Remaining: 4,000,000 tickets (33.3% sold)
Prize Tiers
| Prize Amount | Total Prizes | Claimed | Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
$ | 7 | |||
$ | 31 | |||
$ | 298 | |||
$ | 741 | |||
$ | 7,583 | |||
$ | 30,917 | |||
$ | 94,444 | |||
$ | 237,778 | |||
$ | 764,833 | |||
| Totals | 1,927,892 | 791,260 | 1,136,632 |
Total Prize Pool$20.26M
Remaining Prize Pool$12.07M
Revenue (All Tickets)$30.00M
Results
Expected Value Per Ticket
-$1.98
-EV: SKIP
Return to Player60.37%
ROI-39.63%
Expected Return$3.02
Win ANY Prize28.42%
Odds (1 in X)1 in 3.5
House Edge39.63%
Breakeven Analysis
This game becomes +EV when 59.8% of losing tickets have been sold (~3,585,305 total tickets sold).
Tickets bought:
95% CI win rate: 0.46% to 56.37%Based on 10 tickets
Win Probability by Tier
$100,0000.0002%
1 in 571,429 · 7 remaining
$10,0000.0008%
1 in 129,032 · 31 remaining
$1,0000.0074%
1 in 13,423 · 298 remaining
$500.000.0185%
1 in 5,398 · 741 remaining
$100.000.1896%
1 in 527 · 7,583 remaining
$50.000.7729%
1 in 129 · 30,917 remaining
$20.002.3611%
1 in 42 · 94,444 remaining
$10.005.9444%
1 in 17 · 237,778 remaining
$5.0019.1208%
1 in 5 · 764,833 remaining
Prize Tier EV Contribution
$5.0031.7% of EV
$10.0019.7% of EV
$20.0015.6% of EV
$50.0012.8% of EV
$100.006.3% of EV
$100,0005.8% of EV
$500.003.1% of EV
$10,0002.6% of EV
$1,0002.5% of EV
Expected Tickets to Win Each Tier
$100,000-EV TIER
~571,429 tickets ($2.86M) to win once
$10,000-EV TIER
~129,033 tickets ($645,165) to win once
$1,000-EV TIER
~13,423 tickets ($67,115) to win once
$500.00-EV TIER
~5,399 tickets ($26,995) to win once
$100.00-EV TIER
~528 tickets ($2,640) to win once
$50.00-EV TIER
~130 tickets ($650.00) to win once
$20.00-EV TIER
~43 tickets ($215.00) to win once
$10.00-EV TIER
~17 tickets ($85.00) to win once
$5.00-EV TIER
~6 tickets ($30.00) to win once
Tickets for First Prize
Expected tickets for 1 prize~4
Cost for those tickets$20.00
Expected cumulative return$12.07
On average, you need 4 tickets ($20.00) before winning any prize. This does not guarantee profit. It only guarantees you've hit the expected number for one win.
Prize Distribution
Total Prizes Remaining Prizes
Understanding Scratch Card Math
Expected Value (EV)
EV tells you the average amount you win or lose per ticket over many purchases. A positive EV means the game favors you; negative means the house has the edge. Most scratch cards start -EV but can become +EV as losing tickets are sold while top prizes remain.
EV = (Remaining Prize Pool / Remaining Tickets) - Ticket CostReturn to Player (RTP)
RTP is the percentage of money wagered that is returned to players as prizes over time. State lotteries typically mandate 60-75% RTP for scratch cards. An RTP above 100% means players collectively win more than they spend, a rare but possible scenario late in a game's lifecycle.
RTP = (Expected Return / Ticket Cost) x 100%The Breakeven Point
As tickets sell, the ratio of remaining prizes to remaining tickets changes. If big prizes survive while cheap losing tickets get bought, the game can flip to +EV. The breakeven point is exactly when EV crosses zero. Tracking claimed prizes via lottery websites lets you spot these opportunities.
Breakeven when: Remaining Pool / Remaining Tickets > CostProbability & Variance
Even when a game is +EV, high variance means you need many tickets to realize the edge. A game where the +EV comes from a single $1M prize in 2M remaining tickets has extreme variance: you'd need thousands of tickets to converge toward the expected return. Focus on games with +EV spread across multiple tiers.
Variance = Sigma(p_i x (outcome_i - mean)^2), losing tickets includedWant More Tools?
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