Scratch Card EV Calculator

Determine if a scratch card game is +EV or -EV based on remaining prizes and tickets. Make mathematically informed decisions before you buy.

Presets

Game Setup

Ticket Price

Total Tickets Printed

Tickets Already Sold

Remaining: 4,000,000 tickets (33.3% sold)

Prize Tiers

Prize Amount	Total Prizes	Claimed	Remaining
$			7
$			31
$			298
$			741
$			7,583
$			30,917
$			94,444
$			237,778
$			764,833
Totals	1,927,892	791,260	1,136,632

Total Prize Pool$20.26M

Remaining Prize Pool$12.07M

Revenue (All Tickets)$30.00M

Results

Expected Value Per Ticket

-$1.98

-EV: SKIP

Return to Player60.37%

ROI-39.63%

Expected Return$3.02

Win ANY Prize28.42%

Odds (1 in X)1 in 3.5

House Edge39.63%

Breakeven Analysis

This game becomes +EV when 59.8% of losing tickets have been sold (~3,585,305 total tickets sold).

+EV

0%Current: 33.3%100%

Tickets bought:

95% CI win rate: 9.90% to 58.91%Based on 10 tickets

Win Probability by Tier

1 in 571,429 · 7 remaining

1 in 129,032 · 31 remaining

1 in 13,423 · 298 remaining

1 in 5,398 · 741 remaining

1 in 527 · 7,583 remaining

1 in 129 · 30,917 remaining

1 in 42 · 94,444 remaining

1 in 17 · 237,778 remaining

1 in 5 · 764,833 remaining

Prize Tier EV Contribution

🏆$5.0031.7% of EV

🏆$10.0019.7% of EV

🏆$20.0015.6% of EV

$50.0012.8% of EV

$100.006.3% of EV

$100,0005.8% of EV

$500.003.1% of EV

$10,0002.6% of EV

$1,0002.5% of EV

Expected Tickets to Win Each Tier

~571,429 tickets ($2.86M) to win once

~129,033 tickets ($645,165) to win once

~13,423 tickets ($67,115) to win once

~5,399 tickets ($26,995) to win once

~528 tickets ($2,640) to win once

~130 tickets ($650.00) to win once

~43 tickets ($215.00) to win once

~17 tickets ($85.00) to win once

~6 tickets ($30.00) to win once

Tickets for First Prize

Expected tickets for 1 prize~4

Cost for those tickets$20.00

Expected cumulative return$12.07

On average, you need 4 tickets ($20.00) before winning any prize. This does not guarantee profit. It only guarantees you've hit the expected number for one win.

Prize Distribution

Total Prizes Remaining Prizes

Understanding Scratch Card Math

Expected Value (EV)

EV tells you the average amount you win or lose per ticket over many purchases. A positive EV means the game favors you; negative means the house has the edge. Most scratch cards start -EV but can become +EV as losing tickets are sold while top prizes remain.

EV = (Remaining Prize Pool / Remaining Tickets) - Ticket Cost

Return to Player (RTP)

RTP is the percentage of money wagered that is returned to players as prizes over time. State lotteries typically mandate 60-75% RTP for scratch cards. An RTP above 100% means players collectively win more than they spend, a rare but possible scenario late in a game's lifecycle.

RTP = (Expected Return / Ticket Cost) x 100%

The Breakeven Point

As tickets sell, the ratio of remaining prizes to remaining tickets changes. If big prizes survive while cheap losing tickets get bought, the game can flip to +EV. The breakeven point is exactly when EV crosses zero. Tracking claimed prizes via lottery websites lets you spot these opportunities.

Breakeven when: Remaining Pool / Remaining Tickets > Cost

Probability & Variance

Even when a game is +EV, high variance means you need many tickets to realize the edge. A game where the +EV comes from a single $1M prize in 2M remaining tickets has extreme variance: you'd need thousands of tickets to converge toward the expected return. Focus on games with +EV spread across multiple tiers.

Variance = Sigma(p_i x (outcome_i - mean)^2), losing tickets included

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