Staking Plan Comparator

A staking plan is a systematic method for determining how much to bet on each wager. Rather than betting arbitrary amounts, a staking plan uses mathematical rules based on your bankroll size, edge, or recent results. The goal is to maximize growth while controlling risk of ruin. Even with a positive edge, poor staking can lead to bust. Conversely, smart staking extends your bankroll life and compounds winners efficiently.

The Kelly Criterion calculates the mathematically optimal fraction of your bankroll to wager: f* = (bp - q) / b, where b = decimal odds - 1, p = win probability, q = 1 - p. Full Kelly maximizes the geometric growth rate but can be volatile. Half Kelly halves the stake for smoother equity curves with ~75% of Kelly's growth rate. Most professional bettors use fractional Kelly (25-50%) because edge estimates are rarely precise.

Flat staking (fixed % of initial bankroll) is the most conservative, your bet size never changes, providing stable and predictable risk. Percentage staking adjusts to current bankroll, naturally reducing bets during drawdowns (protective) but also reducing bets when ahead (slower compounding). Full Kelly is the most aggressive: it sizes bets perfectly for growth but amplifies variance. The “right” plan depends on how accurately you know your edge and how much variance you can tolerate.

Switch staking plans when your situation changes: if your edge estimate becomes more or less certain, if your bankroll-to-income ratio shifts, or if you notice emotional reactions to variance. Start conservative (flat or Half Kelly) and only move toward full Kelly as you build a track record proving your edge is real. If your bust rate exceeds 5% in simulations, your staking is too aggressive. The best plan is one you can execute consistently without tilting.