Session Planner
Plan your casino sessions with realistic expectations. Set win goals and loss limits, then see Monte Carlo simulated outcomes across 10,000 sessions.
Session Setup
Results
Configure & Run
Set your session parameters and hit "Run" to see projected outcomes across 10,000 simulated sessions.
Understanding the Math
Key concepts that shape every gambling session.
House Edge vs. Variance
The house edge determines your long-run expected loss: it is the casino's mathematical advantage baked into every game. Variance (standard deviation) determines how wild the swings are in the short run. A game with low house edge and high variance (like video poker) can produce big wins in a session even though the math favors the casino long-term. Understanding both numbers is critical for setting realistic session goals.
Why Win Goals Work Psychologically (But Not Mathematically)
Win goals don't change the expected value of your session. The house edge remains constant regardless of when you stop. However, win goals work brilliantly as behavioral guardrails. Without a target, players tend to keep playing until they give back their gains. A win goal forces you to lock in profits while you're ahead. The math doesn't care, but your wallet does. The key insight: win goals improve your actual outcomes by changing your behavior, not the probability.
Risk of Ruin Explained
Risk of ruin is the probability that you lose your entire bankroll during a session. It depends on three factors: your bankroll size relative to your bet size, the house edge, and the game's variance. A player betting $100 per hand with a $500 bankroll at blackjack faces far higher ruin risk than someone betting $10 with the same bankroll. The general rule: keep your bets under 2-5% of your session bankroll to maintain a low risk of ruin while still having meaningful action.
Optimal Session Length
Shorter sessions have more variance, which means more chances to walk away a winner despite the house edge. On even-money European roulette (2.7% edge), you have about a 42% chance of being ahead after 50 spins, about 27% after 500, and under 3% after 5,000. The house edge grinds you down over time. That is the mathematical certainty. The optimal session length depends on your goals: if you want excitement and a realistic shot at profit, keep sessions short. If you're there for entertainment value per dollar, longer sessions are more cost-efficient.
Keep what you worked out.
A free account saves your bankroll plans, sessions and the results you run here, on every device. No card, no upsell.
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