SGP Correlation Tools
Analyze leg correlations to find +EV same-game parlays, or manually set correlation coefficients to calculate your true probability vs. the bookmaker's implied odds.
Parlay Leg Builder
Correlation Analysis
Pairwise Correlations
Edge Detector
Strongly correlated (+0.65). If the team wins, they likely scored points. Sportsbooks frequently underprice this combo by 3-8%.
The same-team QB/WR stack has a +0.50 correlation. When the QB hits his yardage, the WR often does too. Look for discounted SGP pricing.
Very strong correlation (+0.70). First half leaders usually win the game. Sportsbooks price this conservatively.
Correlation Reference Matrix NFL
Visual reference of how different bet types correlate with each other in NFL. Green indicates positive correlation (legs move together), red indicates negative correlation (legs oppose).
Correlation Strength Guide
Understanding what correlation values mean in practice for your same-game parlays.
These outcomes almost always move together. If one hits, the other is very likely to hit as well.
A meaningful tendency to move together. One outcome materially increases the probability of the other.
A slight tendency to co-occur. The correlation exists but is not strong enough to rely on alone.
Outcomes are essentially independent. One does not meaningfully predict the other.
A slight tendency to oppose each other. When one hits, the other is slightly less likely.
Outcomes actively oppose each other. If one hits, the other is significantly less likely.
Understanding SGP Correlations
What is Correlation in SGPs?
Correlation measures how much two outcomes tend to occur together. In same-game parlays, correlated legs are events that influence each other within the same game.
- Positive correlation (+): Outcomes tend to happen together (e.g., team wins and scores a lot)
- Negative correlation (-): Outcomes tend to oppose each other (e.g., clean sheet and both teams score)
- Zero correlation: Outcomes are independent, like a coin flip and a dice roll
- Range is -1.0 (perfect opposition) to +1.0 (perfect agreement)
How Sportsbooks Price SGPs
Sportsbooks use correlation models to adjust SGP pricing, but their models are imperfect. They add extra vig and sometimes misestimate correlation strength.
- Books apply a "correlation penalty" — they assume some correlation but add margin on top
- Simple legs (ML + total) are usually priced more accurately due to high volume
- Player prop combinations often have less accurate correlation modeling
- Cross-market combos (props + game lines) are where the biggest mispricings occur
Finding +EV SGP Combos
The key to profitable SGPs is finding combinations where the true correlated probability exceeds what the sportsbook is offering.
- Focus on strong positive correlations (+0.4 or higher) where the joint probability is significantly above independent
- Compare your calculated fair odds against the sportsbook SGP payout
- Look for combos where sportsbooks underestimate correlation (e.g., QB + WR stacks)
- Avoid negatively correlated legs that reduce your true probability below independent
Common Correlation Mistakes
Avoid these frequent errors that bettors make when building same-game parlays with correlated legs.
- Pairing contradictory outcomes (e.g., BTTS Yes + Clean Sheet) — strong negative correlation destroys your edge
- Assuming all same-team props are correlated — assists and points can be weakly negative
- Ignoring the vig — even with positive correlation, the sportsbook margin may eat your edge
- Over-correlating — just because two things seem related does not mean r is high; check the data
Find More +EV Opportunities
Combine the SGP Correlation Analyzer with our full suite of betting tools to maximize your edge across every market.