Teaser Calculator

A teaser is a type of parlay where you get to adjust the point spread in your favor by a fixed number of points (typically 6, 6.5, or 7 in the NFL; 4, 4.5, or 5 in the NBA) in exchange for reduced payout odds. Unlike a standard parlay where you take the lines as-is, a teaser lets you buy points across all legs simultaneously. The trade-off is clear: higher win probability per leg, but significantly lower payouts. All legs must still win for the teaser to pay. A standard 2-team, 6-point NFL teaser at -110 converts a line from, say, -3 to +3, a 6-point swing that crosses the critical number 3.

Named after Stanford Wong (author of Sharp Sports Betting), the Wong teaser is the gold standard for finding +EV teasers. The core idea: only tease NFL sides through the key numbers 3 and 7. This means taking favorites of -7.5 through -2.5 (teasing to -1.5 through +3.5) or underdogs of +1.5 through +2.5 (teasing to +7.5 through +8.5). Wong found that 6-point, 2-team NFL teasers meeting these criteria won approximately 73-74% per leg historically. At standard -110 odds, you need 72.4% per leg to break even on a 2-team teaser, making Wong teasers consistently +EV. The key is discipline: only bet when both legs qualify.

NFL games disproportionately land on certain margins due to scoring structure (3 for field goals, 7 for touchdowns). The most important key numbers are 3 (~15% of games), 7 (~9-10%), 10 (~6%), and 14 (~4%). Crossing these numbers with a teaser means capturing a significant chunk of outcomes that would otherwise be pushes or losses. For example, teasing a -7.5 favorite down to -1.5 means that games decided by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points (which represents roughly 40-45% of all NFL outcomes) flip from losses/pushes to wins. This is fundamentally why NFL teasers can be +EV while NBA teasers rarely are: basketball scoring is more continuous with no comparable key numbers.

A teaser is +EV when your estimated per-leg win probability exceeds the break-even threshold. For a 2-team teaser at -110, break-even is 72.4% per leg (since you need both legs to win: 0.724² = 52.4%, and -110 implies 52.4%). The formula is straightforward: BE = (implied_prob)^(1/N) where N is the number of legs. Adding legs raises the break-even per leg: a 3-team teaser at +150 needs 73.7% per leg. The practical takeaway: 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers through 3 and 7 are the most reliably +EV bet in sports. Avoid NBA teasers (no key numbers), avoid 3+ team teasers (break-even too high), and avoid 7-point teasers (odds penalty often erases the extra half-point benefit).