Teaser Calculator

Calculate break-even win percentage and expected value for NFL and NBA teasers. Identify Wong-eligible teasers and find +EV opportunities through key number analysis.

Presets

Inputs

Sport

Teaser Points

Number of Legs

Teaser Odds (American) auto-filled from standard payouts

Decimal: 1.909 · Implied: 52.38%

Per-Leg Win Probability (%) your estimated ATS cover rate

Straight Bet Win Probability (%) used only for the straight-bet comparison

Wong Teaser Structure A two-team, 6-point NFL teaser is the Wong structure, but only when each leg crosses both 3 and 7: favourites of -7.5 to -8.5 teased to -1.5 to -2.5, or underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased to +7.5 to +8.5. This calculator does not know your lines, so this badge marks the structure, not your bet. The per-leg rate usually quoted for those legs is about 73.5%, from Wong's published studies of past seasons; it needs 72.37% per leg to break even at these odds, and books have shaded 6-point prices since.

Results

Verdict

-EV

This teaser has negative expected value. Consider adjusting your parameters.

Break-Even Win % (Per Leg)72.37%

Your Estimated Win %72.00%

EV Per $100 Wagered$-1.03

Parlay Win Probability51.84%

Break-Even vs. Your Estimate

BE 72.37%

You 72.00%

50%60%70%80%90%100%

Teaser vs. Straight Bet Comparison

Odds-110-110

Win Prob Per Leg72.00%52.40%

Overall Win Prob51.84%27.46%

EV / $100$-1.03+$0.07

Payout / $100$190.91$364.46

Standard NFL Teaser Payouts

6pt-110+150+250+400

6.5pt-120+130+200+350

7pt-130+110+180+300

NFL Key Numbers & Teaser Movement

Fav -7.5 teased to -1.5

1.5 → 7.5

Crosses: 3, 7 WONG

Fav -3 teased to +3

0 → 6

Crosses: 3

Dog +1.5 teased to +7.5

1.5 → 7.5

Crosses: 3, 7 WONG

Fav -10 teased to -4

4 → 10

Crosses: 7, 10

3~15.0%Field goal margin. Most common NFL final margin.

7~9.1%Touchdown margin. Second most common final margin.

10~5.6%TD + FG margin.

14~4.8%Two-touchdown margin.

Teaser Strategy Guide

What Are Teasers?

A teaser is a type of parlay where you get to adjust the point spread in your favor by a fixed number of points (typically 6, 6.5, or 7 in the NFL; 4, 4.5, or 5 in the NBA) in exchange for reduced payout odds. Unlike a standard parlay where you take the lines as-is, a teaser lets you buy points across all legs simultaneously. The trade-off is clear: higher win probability per leg, but significantly lower payouts. All legs must still win for the teaser to pay. A standard 2-team, 6-point NFL teaser at -110 converts a line from, say, -3 to +3, a 6-point swing that crosses the critical number 3.

Wong Teaser Strategy

Named after Stanford Wong (author of Sharp Sports Betting), the Wong teaser is the gold standard for finding +EV teasers. The core idea: only tease NFL sides through the key numbers 3 and 7. This means taking favorites of -7.5 through -2.5 (teasing to -1.5 through +3.5) or underdogs of +1.5 through +2.5 (teasing to +7.5 through +8.5). Wong found that 6-point, 2-team NFL teasers meeting these criteria won approximately 73-74% per leg historically. At standard -110 odds, you need 72.4% per leg to break even on a 2-team teaser, making Wong teasers consistently +EV. The key is discipline: only bet when both legs qualify.

Key Numbers in NFL

NFL games disproportionately land on certain margins due to scoring structure (3 for field goals, 7 for touchdowns). The most important key numbers are 3 (~15% of games), 7 (~9-10%), 10 (~6%), and 14 (~4%). Crossing these numbers with a teaser means capturing a significant chunk of outcomes that would otherwise be pushes or losses. For example, teasing a -7.5 favorite down to -1.5 means that games decided by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 points (which represents roughly 40-45% of all NFL outcomes) flip from losses/pushes to wins. This is fundamentally why NFL teasers can be +EV while NBA teasers rarely are: basketball scoring is more continuous with no comparable key numbers.

When Teasers Are +EV

A teaser is +EV when your estimated per-leg win probability exceeds the break-even threshold. For a 2-team teaser at -110, break-even is 72.4% per leg (since you need both legs to win: 0.724² = 52.4%, and -110 implies 52.4%). The formula is straightforward: BE = (implied_prob)^(1/N) where N is the number of legs. Adding legs raises the break-even per leg: a 3-team teaser at +150 needs 73.7% per leg. The practical takeaway: 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers through 3 and 7 are the most reliably +EV bet in sports. Avoid NBA teasers (no key numbers), avoid 3+ team teasers (break-even too high), and avoid 7-point teasers (odds penalty often erases the extra half-point benefit).

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is a teaser bet?

A teaser bet is a type of parlay where you get to move the point spread or total in your favor by a set number of points (e.g., 6, 6.5, or 7 points in NFL). In exchange for this advantage, the payout is reduced compared to a standard parlay.

What is a Wong Teaser?

A Wong Teaser, popularized by Stanford Wong, is a 2-team, 6-point NFL teaser where both teams cross a key number (3 or 7). Crossing 3 and 7 covers a disproportionately large percentage of game outcomes, making these teasers historically +EV.

What are NFL key numbers for teasers?

The most important NFL key numbers are 3 (most common margin of victory), 7, 6, 4, and 10. When a 6-point teaser allows you to move a favorite from -7.5 to -1.5, you cross through 3 and 7, statistically the two most frequent final margins.

What win rate do I need to break even on a teaser?

For a standard 2-team teaser at -110, each leg needs to win about 72.4% of the time to break even (you risk 110 to profit 100, so the pair must hit 52.4% of the time; per leg that is the square root). For a 3-team teaser at +180, each leg needs about 70.9%. The break-even threshold depends on the number of teams and the payout odds.

Goes with this. Calculate payouts for spread and totals bets with key number analysis. NFL/NBA push probability tables and margin-of-victory distributions.

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