Stake Crash Calculator
Calculate probabilities, EV, and variance for Stake Crash. Understand why no cashout target beats the house edge, and how rakeback changes the equation.
Settings
Results
| Target | Win% | EV per $1 | Avg Bets to Hit | Total Return (incl. stake) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5x | 66.00% | -$0.01 | 2 | $15.00 |
| 2x | 49.50% | -$0.01 | 2 | $20.00 |
| 3x | 33.00% | -$0.01 | 3 | $30.00 |
| 5x | 19.80% | -$0.01 | 5 | $50.00 |
| 10x | 9.90% | -$0.01 | 10 | $100.00 |
| 20x | 4.95% | -$0.01 | 20 | $200.00 |
| 50x | 1.98% | -$0.01 | 51 | $500.00 |
| 100x | 0.99% | -$0.01 | 101 | $1,000.00 |
| 200x | 0.49% | -$0.01 | 202 | $2,000.00 |
| 500x | 0.20% | -$0.01 | 505 | $5,000.00 |
| 1000x | 0.10% | -$0.01 | 1,010 | $10,000.00 |
Every cashout target has the same base −1% EV (−0.97% after rakeback). Stake's crash curve is designed so multiplier × P(win) = 0.99 for all targets. Lower targets mean less variance, not better odds.
Crash Predictor Tools are SCAMS
Stake Crash is provably fair through a pre-committed hash chain: every round is one link of a 10-million-hash chain, salted with a Bitcoin block chosen after the chain was published, so all results were fixed before anyone ever bet. (Unlike Dice or Mines, Crash does not use your client/server seed pair, and stake.com and stake.us each run their own chain.) No tool can predict future results. Any "crash predictor" is either a scam or gambler's fallacy dressed up in a UI.
Each round is independent. Past crashes have zero effect on future results.
Verify any Stake Crash result yourself →Play Smarter Than the Crash Curve
GAMB·8 gives you automated bot strategies, real-time analytics, provably fair verification, and bankroll tools, so you understand the math before you bet.