Stake Crash Calculator
Compare cashout odds, payouts, and risk at each target.
Models Stake.com · program data verified 2026-08-17Same games, odds and provably fair system on Stake.US.
Presets
Settings
x
$
Stake Crash: 1.00% (fixed)P(crash ≥ x) = 0.99 / x
Results
Win Probability49.50%
EV per Bet-$0.10
Expected Loss / 100-$10.00
Net / 100 w/ Rakeback-$9.65
Multiplier Probability Table
| Target | Win% | EV / $1 incl. rakeback | Avg Bets to Hit | Total Return (incl. stake) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5x | 66.00% | -$0.01 | 1.52 | $15.00 |
| 2x | 49.50% | -$0.01 | 2.02 | $20.00 |
| 3x | 33.00% | -$0.01 | 3.03 | $30.00 |
| 5x | 19.80% | -$0.01 | 5.05 | $50.00 |
| 10x | 9.90% | -$0.01 | 10.1 | $100.00 |
| 20x | 4.95% | -$0.01 | 20.2 | $200.00 |
| 50x | 1.98% | -$0.01 | 50.51 | $500.00 |
| 100x | 0.99% | -$0.01 | 101.01 | $1,000.00 |
| 200x | 0.50% | -$0.01 | 202.02 | $2,000.00 |
| 500x | 0.20% | -$0.01 | 505.05 | $5,000.00 |
| 1000x | 0.10% | -$0.01 | 1,010.1 | $10,000.00 |
Each target has −1% expected return before rakeback. Higher targets increase variance.
Crash Predictor Tools are SCAMS
Future Crash results cannot be predicted from past rounds. Verify completed rounds with the published hash chain.
Verify any Stake Crash result yourself →Variance Comparison: Same Bet Amount, Different Targets
1.5x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $71.06
Low variance
2x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $99.99
Low variance
5x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $199.25
Medium variance
10x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $298.66
Medium variance
50x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $696.56
High variance
100x
EV: -0.965%/bet
σ/100 bets: $990.05
High variance
Rakeback Impact: Effective edge: 0.965%. Over 1,000 bets: expected loss -$100.00, rebate $3.50, net -$96.50.
Keep what you worked out.
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First time here
Your target cash-out multiplier and bet amount. The tool gives the chance the round reaches it and the EV of the auto cash-out.
Next
Goes with this. Monte Carlo for crash games: cashout points, bankroll survival, drawdown risk, and the math behind the house winning.
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