Baccarat Strategy Simulator

Baccarat has three possible outcomes with different house edges. The Banker bet is the closest to a fair coin flip in any casino game.

Key takeaway: Ties return your original bet on Banker/Player wagers, so the effective win probabilities for non-tie outcomes are what matter. With the 5% commission factored in, Banker still has the lowest house edge of any table game bet.

The Banker hand draws last and its drawing rules depend on what the Player drew. This sequential advantage gives Banker a slightly higher win probability (45.86% vs 44.62%). Even after the 5% commission on Banker wins, the net house edge remains lower:

Compare to Player: EV = 0.4462 - 0.4586 = -0.0124. Over 1,000 hands at $100/hand, this difference saves you roughly $18. Small edge, but it compounds over time.

Baccarat scorecards (Big Road, Bead Plate, etc.) are provided by casinos to encourage the gambler's fallacy. Each shoe is dealt from a freshly shuffled deck, previous outcomes have zero predictive power over future hands.

The probability of Banker winning hand #47 is identical whether the last 10 hands were all Player wins or all Banker wins. Patterns are retrospective artifacts, not predictive signals. Our simulator lets you verify this: run "Follow Streak" and "Opposite Streak" side by side and watch them converge to the same negative expectation.

The 5% Banker commission is the casino's margin on the statistically stronger bet. Without commission, Banker would be a positive-EV bet, which is why no casino offers commission-free baccarat without alternate rules (like pushing on Banker 6).

Some "no-commission" tables replace the fee with rules like "Banker wins on 6 pay 0.5:1", which actually increases the house edge to ~1.46%. The standard 5% commission is the better deal.